Manufacturing sales decreased 0.5% to $69.1 billion in September, the second consecutive monthly decline. The decline was mainly due to lower sales of petroleum and coal products (-7.5%) and lower production of aerospace products and parts (-4.2%). Excluding petroleum and coal, total manufacturing sales were up 0.4% in September. On a quarterly basis, total sales fell 1.3% in the third quarter of 2024, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Lower sales of transportation equipment (-3.7%) as well as petroleum and coal products (-3.9%) were mainly responsible for the quarterly decline. Total sales in constant dollars fell 0.4% on a monthly basis in September, while the Industrial Product Price Index declined 0.6%.
Chart 1 Manufacturing sales
Source(s): Tables 16-10-0047-01 and 16-10-0013-01.
Petroleum and coal product subsector leads the decline
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector decreased 7.5% to $7.1 billion in September, following a 5.1% decline in August. The decline in September was driven by lower volume sales and prices. Prices for refined petroleum energy products (including liquid biofuels) were down 7.9% in September, while sales on a constant dollar basis decreased 5.1%. Weak global demand for energy contributed to lower sales of petroleum products in September.
In the aerospace product and parts industry group, production decreased 4.2% to $2.5 billion in September, after reaching its second highest level on record in August ($2.6 billion). On a quarterly basis, production declined 1.6% in the third quarter of 2024, following three consecutive quarterly increases. Despite the monthly and quarterly declines, production on a year-over-year basis was up 9.7% in September.
Following four consecutive monthly declines, motor vehicle sales increased 2.9% to $4.4 billion in September, mainly on higher sales in Ontario. On a quarterly basis, sales in this industry group fell 5.1% in the third quarter of 2024, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly decline and the lowest quarterly sales since the fourth quarter of 2022. Retooling at some auto assembly plants along with low demand for motor vehicles were responsible for the decline in the third quarter of 2024. Exports of motor vehicles and parts fell (-3.5%) in the third quarter.
Sales decline in six provinces, led by Quebec and Saskatchewan
Manufacturing sales fell in six provinces in September. The largest declines were posted in Quebec and Saskatchewan, while sales in New Brunswick increased the most.
In Quebec, sales decreased 1.1% to $17.8 billion in September, the lowest sales level since January 2024. The decline was primarily due to lower sales of transportation equipment (-7.5%), followed by petroleum and coal products (-7.9%). In the transportation equipment subsector, production of aerospace products and parts decreased 5.8% in September 2024, while sales of motor vehicles were down 7.2%. On a quarterly basis, total sales in Quebec fell 1.3% in the third quarter, while they were down 0.3% on a yearly basis in September.
Sales in Saskatchewan declined 8.4% to $1.8 billion in September, the second consecutive monthly decline, driven by lower sales of non-durable goods (-11.8%). Despite the monthly decline, sales increased on a quarterly basis in Saskatchewan, rising 6.7% to $5.8 billion in the third quarter, mainly due to higher sales of food products (+13.6%).
In New Brunswick, total manufacturing sales increased 5.3% to $2.1 billion in September, mainly on a 6.2% increase in sales of non-durable goods. The increase was partially offset by a 17.9% decline in sales of non-metallic mineral products. Sales on a quarterly basis in New Brunswick rose 5.3% in the third quarter.
Total inventories edge down
Total inventory levels edged down 0.4% to $120.2 billion in September, the lowest level since July 2022, on lower inventories in 10 of 21 subsectors. The inventories declined the most in the wood product (-4.3%) and primary metal (-2.0%) subsectors in September 2024. All three inventory components were down in September, led by finished products (-0.6%) and raw materials (-0.4%).
Chart 2 Inventory levels edge down in September
Source(s): Table 16-10-0047-01.
The inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.74 in September. This ratio measures the time, in months, that would be required to exhaust inventories if sales were to remain at their current level.
Chart 3 The inventory-to-sales ratio is unchanged in September
Source(s): Table 16-10-0047-01.
Unfilled orders increase
Total unfilled orders increased 1.6% to $105.3 billion in September, primarily on higher unfilled orders in the machinery subsector (+21.2%). Unfilled orders of aerospace products and parts decline the most (-1.6%).
Chart 4 Unfilled orders increase in September
Source(s): Table 16-10-0047-01.
Capacity utilization rate declines
The capacity utilization rate (not seasonally adjusted) for the total manufacturing sector declined from 79.5% in August to 78.6% in September, on lower production. The decline was more noticeable in the petroleum and coal product (-5.2 percentage points), primary metal (-4.4 percentage points), and fabricated metal (-2.0 percentage points) subsectors. The decline was partially offset by a higher capacity utilization rate in the wood product subsector (+4.9 percentage points).
Chart 5 Capacity utilization rate declines in September
Source(s): Table 16-10-0012-01.
Note to readers
Monthly data in this release are seasonally adjusted and are expressed in current dollars, unless otherwise specified.
Seasonally adjusted data are data that have been modified to eliminate the effect of seasonal and calendar influences to allow for more meaningful comparisons of economic conditions from period to period. For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonally adjusted data – Frequently asked questions.
Trend-cycle estimates are included in selected charts as a complement to the seasonally adjusted series. These data represent a smoothed version of the seasonally adjusted time series and provide information on longer-term movements, including changes in direction underlying the series. For information on trend-cycle data, see Trend-cycle estimates – Frequently asked questions.
Both seasonally adjusted data and trend-cycle estimates are subject to revision as additional observations become available. These revisions could be large and could even lead to a reversal of movement, especially for reference months near the end of the series or during periods of economic disruption.
Non-durable goods industries include food; beverage and tobacco products; textile mills; textile product mills; apparel; leather and allied products; paper; printing and related support activities; petroleum and coal products; chemicals; and plastics and rubber products.
Durable goods industries include wood products; non-metallic mineral products; primary metals; fabricated metal products; machinery; computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances and components; transportation equipment; furniture and related products; and miscellaneous manufacturing.
Production-based industries
For the aerospace and shipbuilding industry groups, the value of production is used instead of the value of sales of goods manufactured. The value of production is calculated by adjusting monthly sales of goods manufactured by the monthly change in inventories of goods in process and finished products manufactured. The value of production is used because of the extended period of time that it normally takes to manufacture products in these industries.
Unfilled orders are a stock of orders that will contribute to future sales, assuming that the orders are not cancelled.
New orders are those received whether sold in the current month or not. New orders are measured as the sum of sales for the current month plus the change in unfilled orders from the previous month to the current month.
Manufacturers reporting sales, inventories and unfilled orders in US dollars
Some Canadian manufacturers report sales, inventories and unfilled orders in US dollars. These data are then converted to Canadian dollars as part of the data production cycle.
For sales, based on the assumption that they occur throughout the month, the average monthly exchange rate for the reference month established by the Bank of Canada is used for the conversion. The monthly average exchange rate is available in table 33-10-0163-01. Inventories and unfilled orders are reported at the end of the reference period. For most respondents, the daily average exchange rate on the last working day of the month is used for the conversion of these variables.
However, some manufacturers choose to report their data as of a day other than the last working day of the month. In these instances, the daily average exchange rate on the day selected by the respondent is used. Note that because of exchange rate fluctuations, the daily average exchange rate on the day selected by the respondent can differ from both the exchange rate on the last working day of the month and the monthly average exchange rate. Daily average exchange rate data are available in table 33-10-0036-01.
Revision policy
Each month, the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing releases preliminary data for the reference month and revised data for the previous three months. Revisions are made to reflect new information provided by respondents and updates to administrative data.
Once a year, a revision project is undertaken to revise multiple years of data.
Real-time data tables
Real-time data tables 16-10-0118-01, 16-10-0119-01, 16-10-0014-01 and 16-10-0015-01 will be updated on November 22.
Next release
Data from the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing for October will be released on December 13.
Coordonnées des personnes-ressources
Pour obtenir plus de renseignements, communiquez avec le Service de renseignements statistiques (sans frais 1-800-263-1136, international 1-514-283-8300 ou par courriel infostats@statcan.gc.ca), ou communiquez avec les Relations avec les médias (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).